I’ll start this week with a few notes on the Orangerie:
Last week was the epitome of me exercising zero restraint; it was over 6,000 words and involved too many huge blocks of unbroken text. To use a British term of apology: soz. Moving forward, I’m going to be better about breaking up text/readability.
I’ll reiterate the warning about my post being “truncated in some email clients.” Be careful that three dots aren’t hiding half of the post.
I now have score graphics for European games! Yay (I say as if it required some sort of innovation instead of me just… doing it)! Instead of listing Europe as an afterthought, I’m now going to make this blog chronological: since the European games of this past week are done and dusted, they will come before my previews of the league games this weekend.
You may notice that this post went out after the weekend action had already started (as you’ll see below, Heerenveen against Excelsior was yesterday). A couple points on this:
Obviously, the goal is to get this out before the weekly Friday game; hopefully, as this becomes more routine, that will become a habit. But my guarantee to you, dear reader, is that this blog will be out before the first televised game on ESPN+, which for this weekend is PSV’s game at 10:30am ET.
My previews of any games that happened prior to this post going out are, of course, written before knowing anything about the result of the game in question. Writing a preview, and a score prediction as I usually do, would be pointless and stupidly biased if I knew the outcome. As a pro tip for anyone else who wants to stay on top of games without spoiling anything: I cannot recommend the Live Soccer TV app enough. Not only does it let you see what games are airing on TV and where, but it lets you automatically hide all scores unless you click to unhide them. It makes writing this blog/making the graphics without seeing that Heerenveen-Excelsior score a cinch.
The continuous growth and development of this blog is a source of joy, second only to having you along for the ride. Trust that this will only continue to get better and better.
And with that, let’s get to the action.
Want to just watch one thing this weekend? I highly recommend the Groningen-Ajax game. If you can’t watch it at 10:45am ET on Sunday, you can stream the game anytime afterward on ESPN+ (for about 30 days until they remove it, that is).
A Look At Dutch Teams In Europe
In a just world, this is a tie. But we do not live in a just world. PSV’s most experienced player, Ivan Perišić, unfortunately missed the penalty kick early in the time that should’ve allowed for a tie. Do I think PSV looked “good” in this game? Not really, no. Despite all of their domestic domination under coach Peter Bosz, his PSV teams have yet to make a lasting impression in the Champions League to prove they belong among Europe’s elite. It is, frankly, disappointing. These past few years have been peak PSV, with talent in abundance, and yet the farthest they’ve gotten in the continent’s premier competition has been the Round of 16. Last year’s finish in the league phase, which saw PSV drop out at the first opportunity, looks like it will be emulated this year.
Up next are former Ajax coach Francesco Farioli’s FC Porto 🇵🇹, and while that is one of their more winnable games on paper, Farioli usually got the better of Bosz in the Eredivisie with a much weaker Ajax team. That game is now a must-win… but I don’t know how much hope I am able to possess at this point.
Watch CBS’s extended highlights here (8 min).
Feyenoord are for real. Remember the struggling, sputtering Feyenoord of last year? Yeah, me neither. With respect to last year’s coach Robin van Persie, these performances are proof that an experienced coach is a better coach. Giovanni van Bronckhorst has turned Feyenoord into real contenders. This Como team have become very, very good under Cesc Fàbregas, and are no slouch. The scoreline is a little deceiving: it was 3-1 up until the penultimate minute, when an out-of-nowhere goal was scored by former Utrecht striker Anastasios Douvikas on the fast break. Feyenoord seemed like the team that were going to score next up until that point.
You have to wonder how the Barcelona game (their first of the competition, that ended 5-1 for the Spanish team) would’ve gone if it had taken place deeper into the season. I’m not saying Feyenoord can win the Champions League, but it’s very possible they qualify for the knock-outs and make a good run. Next up is Real Betis 🇪🇸, home of former Ajax star winger Antony. Win that and the excitement level will go up a notch in Rotterdam.
Watch CBS’s extended highlights here (8 min).
Relief for AZ. This was a game they fully deserved to win, even if the score makes it seem like they did so by the skin of their teeth. It was just one of those where the ball just wouldn’t go into the net. Taking all three points at home to one of the weaker teams in the competition was a must, and it’ll paper over some of the frustration caused by their first game, a 1-0 loss to Sunderland that really should’ve ended 1-1. Nonetheless, their next game is against FC Ararat-Armenia 🇦🇲, which can hopefully be a flurry of goals that motivates AZ to feel like they can win the following European game against Italian giants Juventus.
Watch CBS’s extended highlights here (9 min).
N.E.C. weren’t so lucky. While AZ was saved by a penalty, N.E.C. had to leave their home stadium with their heads hung low. They too deserved to win this game. They had a whopping 51 touches in the opposition penalty box (that’s a lot!) to Levski Sofia’s 15; nine shots on target only resulted in one goal. That’s just bad luck, but it’s the kind of bad luck that has plagued Dutch teams in Europe for as long as I can remember. This was a much better showing than their disaster class against Juventus (a 5-0 loss), and their next game against Dinamo Zagreb 🇭🇷 will be an opportunity to hopefully, finally, pick up the three points. Clock’s a ticking.
Watch CBS’s extended highlights here (9 min).
Ajax looked absolutely hopeless. Everything was so, so sloppy. Ajax players looked like they were playing jazz (badly), when a good soccer team, in my opinion, is not one that looks as if they’re constantly improvising. It was incredibly frustrating to watch. Ajax GM Jordi Cruijff has collected a squad full of stars, and yet, what is there to show for it? It would be one thing if Hajduk Split had the game of their lives; granted, the crowd was roaring at Hajduk’s first European game in 16 years, but it was clear they were ripe for the picking. Ajax just couldn’t make all the instruments work together. The Croatian team, at times, looked more Ajax than Ajax did. What happened? I really just don’t know. Ajax looked really exciting earlier in the season; it seemed like we were in for a fun ride of winning games 5-4 instead of 1-0. But apparently not. Julian Brandt, so far an exceptional player in the Ajax team, looked lethargic. I mean that literally.
Social media comments were full of Indonesians saying that they would’ve done better if Indonesia national team goalie Maarten Paes had started the game instead of Marc ter Stegen, maybe the most famed goalkeeper Ajax have had since Dutch legend Edwin van der Sar. That’s where we’re at, Ajax fans.
This is a terrible result for Ajax, especially considering: 1. the Conference League is only six games, not eight, so each game means more, and 2. their next game is against Italian side Atalanta. That’s not an easy game to win. Suddenly, expectations about the Amsterdammers winning the whole competition have fallen to merely hoping that they make it to the knock-outs.
Watch CBS’s extended highlights here (8 min).
Deserved win for Twente. Remember that thing about bad luck, how Dutch teams just sometimes cannot put the ball in the net in Europe? Well, that was the case here, but fortunately for Twente they were gifted a red card for Thun in the 57th minute. Eight minutes later, Twente went ahead. They created two more Expected Goals than Thun, didn’t allow the Swiss team to have a single shot on target, and had 55 touches in the opposition penalty box to Thun’s five. Yes, five. A tie here would have been criminal. The kind of game where you just take the points and don’t look back.
Twente, unlike Ajax, have a relatively simple task in the Conference League: their next game is against Lincoln Red Imps, a team who currently sits fourth in the Gibraltar National League. Gibraltar, as a country, has a population roughly equivalent to three blocks of Manhattan. With respect, Twente should have no trouble making the next round of this competition.
CBS hates either Twente or Thun, I guess, because they just didn’t post the highlights of this game. No idea what to make of that, but it falls in line with their record of subpar service.
And now back to regularly scheduled Eredivisie programming.
The Standings Going In
All teams have played eight games. See the key for the colors if you’re unfamiliar.
Feyenoord — 20 points — 6-2-0
PSV — 19 points — 6-1-1
AZ — 19 points — 6-1-1
Twente — 17 points — 5-2-1
Ajax — 15 points — 4-3-1
Groningen — 14 points — 4-2-2
Fortuna — 14 points — 4-2-2
Go Ahead — 11 points — 2-5-1
Excelsior — 11 points — 3-2-3
Heerenveen — 9 points — 2-3-3
N.E.C. — 9 points — 2-3-3
Cambuur — 8 points — 2-2-4
Utrecht — 8 points — 2-2-4
Sparta — 6 points — 1-3-4
Telstar — 6 points — 1-3-4
PEC — 4 points — 1-1-6
ADO — 3 points — 0-3-5
Willem II — 2 points — 0-2-6
A Look At Each Game
Cautious optimism. I’d say that’s what both of these teams have, going into this game. Heerenveen really deserved what would’ve been an impressive point against PSV, while Excelsior had the wind knocked out of them in a mistake-ridden loss against Groningen. After the longest-ever international break, which saw only a few players from either team leave their clubs on national team duty, both will feel like this is an opportunity to regain momentum.
Excelsior certainly have reached a higher ceiling this season than Heerenveen, and after an exciting first few weeks, I don’t think they’re going to make the tremendous waves that we thought they would. But they’re definitely a decent bet to have their highest Eredivisie finish since they finished in 9th place during the Jimmy Carter administration.
This is a tough one to predict; I feel like it could go either way. This may be a game that’s decided by a mistake. I have a feeling this would be a fun watch.
Prediction: 2-2.
All signs point to a PSV win. Yes, ADO have yet to win a game, and yes, PSV showed last week against Heerenveen that they have the talent to win even if they don’t play their best. But—but!—I must remind you that last year, when PSV marched uncontested to the title and lost only four out of 34 games, that one team accounted for two of those losses by beating PSV both home and away. That team? Telstar. Yep, team-of-almost-amateurs Telstar. Granted, maybe much of that was the genius of then-Telstar coach Anthony Correia, but it should give ADO fans hope that the impossible is actually possible.
Do I think it will happen, though? No. As someone who usually roots for the underdog, I’d like to be proven wrong, but ADO are no Leipzig. PSV will likely run away with this one.
Prediction: 4-0 PSV.
Say your prayers, Telstar. If I were a player about to face Feyenoord—especially a defender—I’d be shaking my boots. They play a stylish, free-flowing brand of soccer that makes defenders’ heads spin. The only hope in the Telstar camp is that they can somehow replicate the 2-2 draw that ADO earned against Feyenoord earlier in the season; that seems unlikely, considering that the Rotterdam team have seemingly grown another head since then.
It’ll be interesting to see if Telstar sit back and try to play for the 0-0, or if they just pretend Feyenoord are their equals and fight fire with fire. I don’t think either will work, but given that this is the Netherlands, they’ll probably do the latter.
Prediction: 3-1 Feyenoord.
A must-win for Sparta. That may sound like an exaggeration this early in the season—we’re in week nine of 34—but in terms of morale at the Rotterdam club, it’s pretty much accurate. They were impressive in their 3-3 tie with Go Ahead, and welcoming the last-placed, winless team to Het Kasteel (“The Castle,” the name of Sparta’s stadium) is the perfect opportunity to boost confidence within the squad.
Utrecht and N.E.C.’s troubles aside, Sparta are the most underwhelming team of the season so far, despite them having a roster that includes some sneaky-good players: the promising Isaac Babadi, the speedy Mitchell van Bergen, and the talented Robin van Cruijsen are all solid, and tall striker Milan Zonneveld is providing more bang for the buck than initially thought. They’ll be happy that tricky winger Shunsuke Mito is soon coming back from injury, but this could be a turning point for Sparta. Their 2-2 tie with PEC earlier in the season is looking more and more like a significant blemish on their record.
It’s time for Sparta to show that they’re actually a good team.
As for Willem II—they’re not a bad team, per se; coach John Stegeman is good at his job. But I don’t think this’ll be their first win of the season.
Prediction: 2-1 Sparta.
This should be the one for Go Ahead. It feels almost like snapping your fingers in someone’s face to get them to focus, and saying “hey, come on, this is your chance.” Because this is a spectacular chance for Go Ahead to win their first game since August 23rd. They’ve tied four straight games against Utrecht, Groningen, N.E.C., and Sparta—four games where coach Joseph Oosting was definitely hoping for more than four points total. For a Go Ahead team famished for a win, here they have the most appealing bucket of chum in the league.
There’s no beating around the bush: PEC are a mess. It bears repeating: in their last three games, they have scored zero goals and let in 11. They fired coach Henry van der Vegt after last week’s 1-0 loss to newly promoted Cambuur, and haven’t found a replacement, meaning that they’re led by a tag-team of assistant coaches. If they had found someone new, PEC could’ve benefited from the “new manager bounce.”1 But that’s part of the sullen mood in Zwolle right now. They met with former Go Ahead head coach René Hake, who had been an assistant coach at PEC from 2012-2015, and who has proven that he’s a good coach.
He turned them down.
And so, who will take over this club in crisis? Likely not anyone proven. I bet PEC would rather just forfeit and take the standard 3-0 loss that comes with it.
Prediction: 4-0 Go Ahead.
A well-timed game for AZ. They could use a big win; they haven’t won a game by more than one goal since beating Go Ahead 5-2 at the end of August. I think they get it here. Cambuur, despite a few surprise positive results, should not be any match for the team from Alkmaar. Considering that the two teams above them in the standings, PSV and Feyenoord, are both also facing low-ranked teams, there will be pressure to easily take all three points here to keep up. Of course, that’s assuming PSV and Feyenoord win their games—if one of them stumbles, AZ will perk up and feel like their title challenge is not over yet.
Personally, I’ll be curious to see this Cambuur team up close. They haven’t graced our American televisions since late August (a 5-2 loss to Feyenoord), and have had a number of decent results since then, making me wonder if they’ve improved as the weeks have passed. Young midfielder Rafik El Arguioui (#10), on loan for the season from Utrecht, has been instrumental in their relative success so far, so he’ll be a player to watch.
It’s hard to say what will happen in this one. Conventional wisdom says a 3-0 AZ win, but looking at their recent games, I don’t know if AZ will continue to struggle or if they’ll finally find some fortune in their favor and win like they should. Cambuur seem just good enough to prevent a lopsided score.
Prediction: 2-0 AZ.
Pittig! That’s the Dutch word for spicy, and boy does it describe this game. The Euroborg (Groningen’s stadium) will be straight-up bouncing with excitement, as Groningen fans will feel like this is the best opportunity to beat Ajax since… March, when Dick Lukkien’s team beat interim Ajax coach Fred Grim 3-1.
This was the point in the season where I would’ve expected Ajax, and coach Míchel Sánchez, to have it all figured out. But watching this famous club, heralded for a possession-based attacking style of soccer that Sánchez was supposed to bring back, just repeatedly hurl in crosses to 6’6” striker Tolu Arokodare in an effort to beat Hajduk Split… that sapped me of any hope and positive emotion for Ajax.
I almost can’t believe I’m saying that I think Groningen will win. For context, Groningen’s squad is worth a combined $53 million; Ajax’s squad is worth a combined $256 million.
And yet…
Prediction: 3-3.
This might be where Fortuna’s magic ends. I mean, it’s got to end at some point, right? Right? They can’t keep getting away with this! In case you missed it, the analysts at the company Opta calculated that before Week 8, despite Fortuna being 6th in the standings, they statistically should have been dead-last. Coach Danny Buijs has clearly opened a communication channel with Satan. Or God. If they manage to beat N.E.C. in Nijmegen, I’m converting to whatever religion Buijs believes in.
I’m not sure N.E.C. will be such an easy team to beat, though. After a tumultuous start to the season, they’ve picked up some steam, and as I said earlier, they should be celebrating their first Europa League win. I imagine Dick Schreuder’s team will be looking to make amends for that missed opportunity here.
Notably, N.E.C. have maybe the oldest attacking front three in Europe: 37-year-old Dušan Tadić and 38-year-old Tjaronn Chery must make 36-year-old Bryan Linssen feel youthful. Of course, these three rank among the team’s best players. This would be a fascinating game to watch, if only to see if Beelzebub himself comes up to thwart N.E.C.’s attempts on goal.
I look forward to recapping this one post-weekend.
Prediction: 2-2.
Utrecht fans, close your eyes. I don’t think this will be pretty. Utrecht are being thrown to the wolves, and the wolves are a bunch of young men with names like Sondre Ørjasæter and Younes Taha. Yes, Utrecht got a win last week against Willem II, but facing Twente at De Grolsch Veste (“The Grolsch Fortress,” the Twente stadium, which is named after Grolsch brewery, founded in 1615, and the fortified city of Groenlo, which was repeatedly besieged during the 16th-century Eighty Years’ War)… that’s a different story. Remember that this Twente are the only team to have beaten PSV so far this season.
Utrecht just keep being the same old story: they are a collection of individuals, they have no team chemistry, yada yada yada, they deservedly lose a game. Frankly, I don’t see things changing any time soon. This season might just be a wash for them; play the games, develop the players, don’t get relegated, and live to fight another day.
Watch them prove me wrong and beat Twente! I almost want to say “I know that won’t happen; if Utrecht win this game I’ll eat my shoe.” But I’d be worried about having to taste leather. I just can’t tell if that’s coming from a belief that Utrecht could win, or from a hope that they improve under the likable Correia. It’s probably the latter.
Prediction: 3-0 Twente.
One Player To Know
The 24-year-old Algerian is arguably the most talented winger in the league—nay, he’s arguably the most talented player in the league. Feyenoord fans will be thanking their lucky stars that his transfer to Saudi club Al-Ittihad ultimately collapsed. If the player is still upset about missing out on making millions of dollars of tax-free income, he’s no longer showing it. If you watch the above highlights of the Como game, you’ll see a beautiful goal by Hadj Moussa. In fact, outside of the 5-1 loss to Barcelona in early September, the guy has been on fire. Of his eight shots on target this Eredivisie season, five of them have been goals; any time he gets on that magical left foot of his, you know trouble’s a brewing.
It’s also pretty incredible that he’s now a player worth over $30 million. As recently as three years ago, Hadj Moussa was playing in a Belgian semi-professional league (!). A 2024 loan to then-Eredivisie team Vitesse Arnhem, from Belgian second division club Patro Eisden Maasmechelen, caught the eye of Feyenoord—who snatched him up in what was Patro Eisden’s record outgoing transfer (the fee was undisclosed, unfortunately). The Belgian team called his transfer “a highlight of the club’s history.”
Hadj Moussa’s transfer value was $390,000 when Feyenoord signed him in 2024. It’s now 82x that.
In three years, he’s gone from not even being a full professional to starring in Europe’s premier club competition, the Champions League. What a story. If you watch Feyenoord this season, you’ll notice the dazzling magic stemming from their #23.
Moment of Nature
One thing you have to understand about the Dutch: it’s a very different culture than in the United States. A great example of this? The Netherlands, the most dense major country in Europe, has a culture of leaving their blinds completely open, at night as much as during the day. I have a memory of walking through my Oma’s village as an adult and noticing hey, I can see right into everyone’s homes. The Dutch both are, and feel, close to each other.
It’s really no surprise that this is then a culture driven by common sense, directness, and pragmatism. A phrase commonly repeated in my family: meten is weten, or “measuring is knowing.”
I’m sure there will be ample opportunities to point out this phenomenon; we already saw an example of the Dutch directness when star Tijjani Reijnders was asked about his big-money move to Saudi club Al-Qadsiah. Pretty much all other players who’ve moved to Saudi Arabia have talked about the improving quality of the league, or some other nonsense/transparently false reason for making the switch.
But not Reijnders. He was incredibly blunt in an interview with the Dutch public broadcaster.
“Me a money grabber? I can’t deny that.”
“I think many people have the idea that your career as a top soccer player is over when you choose to take such a step. I had that feeling at first too.”
“[Al-Qadsiah coach Brendan Rodgers] said that I can play here perfectly fine for three or four years with great pleasure and then go back to Europe. There are plenty of examples of that now. That is also my goal.”
“You can always play the moral crusader, but I think everyone would say yes to it. I don’t want to work anymore after my career. I didn’t have to anymore after [Manchester] City, but now I can also do well for generations after me.”
“If my grandchildren can also live well because of this choice, why wouldn’t I do it?”
Reijnders is making more than double at Al-Qadsiah what he was making at Manchester City, which already has one of the largest payrolls in Europe. His income at City was subject to English taxes; in Saudi Arabia, it’s tax-free. Over the course of his four-year Al-Qadsiah contract, he’s set to make around $114 million.
A term used to describe how the hiring of a new coach usually leads to a temporary honeymoon period of better results. It makes sense: the players feel like the slate has been wiped clean, they each feel motivated to prove themselves to the new boss, and said boss is going to focus on simple tactics in the first few games (the kind of tactics that benefit from having a group of players who feel focused and motivated to give their 110% on the field).