Like if a point guard in a playoff game going for a layup tried, mid-jump, to fake a pass to a teammate—but instead accidentally threw the ball out of bounds.
Like if a running back in a Super Bowl was one-on-one in open field, with just a safety to beat, but then fell over while trying to juke.
That was the 2026 World Cup for the Netherlands.
In the basketball analogy, the player didn’t even get to attempt a shot. In the football analogy, the RB didn’t actually get to see if they could make it past that last defender.
For the Dutch, that’s what it felt like to crash out in the Round of 32 against Morocco. This was technically the worst Dutch World Cup performance of all time; thanks to the addition of 16 more nations this year, a loss in the newly-created Round of 32 is a rung below the previous-worst ouster in the Round of 16 (most recently a 2006 barnburner of a game against Portugal now known as the “Battle of Nuremberg”).
To say that this was a disaster is an understatement.
Here’s the truth: this was a winnable tournament. If you ask me, concocting a World Cup victory requires the following necessary components.
Your players play at the highest level. This means that at least a majority of your 26 players are employed by soccer clubs in the best leagues in the world: the English Premier League, the Spanish La Liga, the German Bundesliga, or the Italian Serie A [Seh-ree-eh Ah]. Ideally, though, the Premier League—which is the clear frontrunner of the four in terms of overall level. It would be a disservice to other leagues to say that the Premier League is like the NBA/NFL of soccer, but the gap is growing so quickly (largely due to money from TV rights) that the comparison is not entirely unreasonable.
You have an excellent goalie. You could easily make the argument that World Cups are won by whichever top country has the best-performing ‘keeper of the moment; you won’t find a recent World Cup winner who didn’t have a legendary player between the sticks. Argentina in 2022 had Emiliano Martinez, France in 2018 had Hugo Lloris, Germany in 2014 had Manuel Neuer, Spain in 2010 had Iker Casillas, Italy in 2006 had Gianluigi Buffon… and this year, Spain had Unai Simón, a world-class goalkeeper. Why? Because in an international tournament like a World Cup, where coaches have little time to organize their team’s defense, the difference between “someone who is good at stopping shots” and “someone who is great at stopping shots” becomes exponentially bigger.
You’ve got good team chemistry and spirit. Probably the most underrated one. Soccer players, we must remember, are humans first—and similarly to an attorney team being selected for a jury trial in front of the whole world, the vibes and teamwork between those attorneys would dictate their performance in their trial just as much as their abilities. At a World Cup, that means having players who are comfortable: they should know their role and what is expected of them. And they should enjoy playing with their teammates.
These are all boxes that the Netherlands check.
Most of the Dutch starting 11 either play in the Premier League—the aforementioned best league in the world by some distance, where there are no easy weeks—or play for cream-of-the-crop clubs in the other top leagues. Just to compare, let’s take a look at the club employers of two national team starting lineups from this World Cup:
Team 1’s Clubs: AC Milan (Italy), FC Barcelona (Spain), Bayern Munich (Germany), Arsenal (England), Aston Villa (England), Real Madrid (Spain), AC Milan (Italy), Paris Saint-Germain (France), Bayern Munich (Germany), Paris Saint-Germain (France), and Real Madrid (Spain).
Team 2’s Clubs: Brighton (England), Real Madrid (Spain), Tottenham (England), Liverpool (England), Tottenham (England), FC Barcelona (Spain), Liverpool (England), Manchester City (England), West Ham United (England), AS Roma (Italy), Liverpool (England).
For both teams, each player either plies their trade at the top level (England) or for the best teams in the other top leagues. The argument could be made that Team 2 has the advantage, since more of their players are facing the strongest, fastest, most talented players in the world every week by earning a living in the Premier League. It’s no surprise that the UEFA Conference League, a continent-wide competition meant to serve the mid-tier clubs of Europe’s leagues, has been won by England’s mid-tier clubs in three of its five iterations. By the way—Team 1 is France, the pre-tournament favorites. Team 2 is the Netherlands. No question: the talent was there.
Complementing the quality of the outfield players, the Netherlands also have not one, but two fantastic goalkeepers. The World Cup starter, Bart Verbruggen [Bart Ver-broo-ghen] is only 23—in terms of goalkeeper ages, he’s still in his infancy; Dutch legend Edwin van der Sar was a national team starter until age 38—but he already has put in stellar performances as the Dutch goalie at Euro 2024 and at this World Cup. Who knows how much more Verbruggen would’ve impressed this summer had that Moroccan penalty kick not bounced off his leg and into the goal?
But, amazingly, Verbruggen might not even be the best Dutch goalkeeper. That title might belong to another 23-year-old: Robin Roefs [Robin Roophs]. Roefs was a first-team starter for Dutch club NEC Nijmegen [said as N-E-C, which in Dutch is “en-ay-say” Nigh-may-ghen] for only one season before getting snatched up by Premier League side Sunderland. And after only one season in the world’s toughest competition, Roefs has established himself among the best in England—he had the highest save percentage of any goalkeeper during the first half of the season. Simply an embarrassment of riches for the Dutch in goal. Component two, check.
The last of the three: team chemistry and spirit. Just like predecessor Louis van Gaal, I think this is something that national team coach Ronald Koeman [Ronald Coo-mahn] took seriously. For example, I suspect that Koeman omitted talented Liverpool speedster Jeremie Frimpong for reasons beyond a lackluster season: Frimpong doesn’t speak good Dutch, on account of growing up in England. I can’t blame Koeman for wanting the cohesion that comes with every other player and coach speaking their native tongue. Chemistry reasons may also have been behind the somewhat-surprising selection of aging midfielder Marten de Roon (Mahr-ten duh Rone). De Roon is a down-to-Earth player who is known for his humorous social media presence (e.g., his Instagram bio is “Summary of playing football in Italy: when we win I get the best table and the food for free. When we lose, my wife has to pick it up.”); he’s exactly the kind of player who acts as a glue within the squad. Whatever Koeman did, he seemed to get this aspect of the job right: had the Dutch moved on further, Cody Gakpo’s goal only days after his girlfriend miscarried—and the images of the entire squad celebrating with him—would have become iconic in the country’s World Cup history.
But despite having those three core elements necessary to win this tournament—top tier professionals, quality goalkeeping, and camaraderie—the Netherlands did not hoist the trophy. That’s because they are insufficient. There is a fourth necessary component, and it may be the most important one:
You have a manager who makes consistently good decisions. You don’t necessarily need the most incredible tactician or the most charismatic leader. You just need someone who can identify the best way to cobble together a team (in all meanings of the word) from the pieces available, and then who can make smart adjustments when things don’t go to plan.
We must accept that national teams live and die by the abilities and limitations of their managers. And the Dutch soccer federation, the KNVB [Kah-En-Vey-Bey], must reckon with the fact that Ronald Koeman was never winning this World Cup. Escaping the consequences of his tactical decisions against Morocco would not have freed the Netherlands of its largest sin: being led by someone who could make such a magnificent miscalculation in a game of this magnitude.
That decision-making would have proven costly against France in the quarterfinal, Spain in the semis, or Argentina in the final—that much is for sure. Especially without star player Xavi Simons [Chahvi See-mons], who tore his ACL only two weeks before the tournament started. Simons is an explosive dribbler and a danger to score any time he touches the ball; he’s exactly the type of player whose goals-out-of-nothing can paint over milquetoast tactics, as one nearly did in the Euro 2024 semifinal (PS: for the record, the commentator pronounces his name incorrectly).
The cherry-on-top of this disappointment pie? The unmentioned momentum that felt like it was on the Netherlands’ side. Including, but not limited to: a Lay’s commercial that depicted people joining the Dutch bandwagon; a song and dance that exemplifies the vibes that every nation should have at a worldwide tournament; a newfound focus from broadcasters on the romantic narrative of the country that has appeared in three World Cup finals and won zero of them: “always the bridesmaid, never the bride.” And a world-renowned star player in Virgil van Dijk [Virgil Van Dyke] who neutrals can root for.
This year, the Netherlands had it all. And they delivered their worst World Cup performance ever. The only, only, only consolation is that Ronald Koeman is no longer national team coach.
Before the 2022 World Cup quarterfinal against Argentina, the first true test the Dutch faced that year, then-coach Louis van Gaal said, “now the tournament really begins for us.” Koeman would’ve said the exact same thing after a hypothetical win over Canada in the Round of 16 set up a clash with France. But he never got there.
It was over before it even began.