What a start to the season. I think we’re in for a treat this year—it feels like there are more Eredivisie teams with potential this year than there have been in recent years.
And so, the number of surprising results make sense. Like Telstar, the club that was supposed to spend this season hanging on for dear life, beating NEC, the club currently competing for a UEFA Champions League place. I predicted that NEC would wipe the floor in a 4-0 win. I was so confident that NEC would win a game that they lost 2-1 (xG: NEC 2.1 Telstar 1.7). But hey, can you blame them? Their focus is on the Champions League—which, by the way, they’ve never qualified for, ever. All that remains between them and Europe’s most prestigious club competition is Norwegian club Bodø/Glimt, who had a surprise run to the UCL Round of 16 last year. I’m worried for NEC; Bodø’s coach Kjetil Knutsen has shown his well-organized team can compete with anyone. First game is Wednesday the 19th.
Another result I got way wrong? Twente losing to Heerenveen 1-0 (xG: Twente 1.4 Heerenveen 0.4). I thought Twente would win 2-0 and start off the season with a bang. Despite selling Mats Rots, a star player, Twente are talented. But there is reason to worry that their summer acquisitions are making it difficult to put together a good team. Among them is Wout Weghorst, the guy who scored that goal which, as a Dutchman, I will never ever forget; Wout Weghorst is not a good player anymore. He’s a name. Yes, it’s romantic that Weghorst is playing for his hometown club (he is from the region of Twente; he’s a Tukker [took-er]). You may be wondering, “who’s behind this recruiting?” Well, it’s former Manchester United coach Erik ten Hag, who struggled at Manchester United in part because… of his recruiting. Twente are a team that should be very good this year. But they might have shot themselves in the foot with their team building. Let’s just hope they qualify for European competition by beating Azerbaijani club Qarabağ SK on the 20th and 27th. That wouldn’t usually sound intimidating, but Qarabag have put together some impressive European runs in recent years… and they’re still managed by the same coach, Qurban Qurbanov, a name that makes me think of former AZ coach Maarten Martens. Good luck, Twente.
I was allllllmost completely correct about the PSV-Fortuna game. I thought PSV would escape with a 2-1 win, thinking that the one goal from Fortuna would be them capitalizing on PSV’s defensive struggles. This was the sitch until the 92nd minute, when Fortuna doubled down on that storyline and scored a second goal to tie the game 2-2 (xG: PSV 2.6 Fortuna 1.0). This is a huge red flag for PSV; it’s Week 1 and they’ve already missed out on two points out of three. And, not going to lie, Fortuna either looked really good offensively, or PSV looked terribly defensively. We knew coming into the season that PSV would struggle on defense, but this needs to improve if PSV have any hopes of beating Europe’s best in the Champions League this season. Let alone become champions for the fourth year in a row.
Ajax on the other hand—arguably PSV’s biggest rivals for the title this year—started the season off with all three possible points. They won against PEC Zwolle 2-0 (yours truly predicted 3-0) (xG: Ajax 2.0 PEC 0.6) in a game that was closer than Ajax fans would like to admit; that second goal was scored seconds before the game ended. With star player Mika Godts likely off to Paris Saint-Germain, the Amsterdammers have huge shoes to fill. Ajax have looked like completely different teams when Godts has played/when he hasn’t. It’s really a shame—he’s not replaceable. Ajax have recruited some incredibly talented players like Julian Brandt and Marc-Andre ter Stegen, but Godts provided a burst of energy whenever he had the ball. Finding someone who can make the ball stick to their feet like glue… that’s tough. But Ajax GM Jordi Cruijff has earned our trust. We’ll see if Ajax can stop their ceiling from dropping significantly if Godts leaves.
The game I was anticipating the most this weekend was AZ against ADO. I predicted a 3-2 win (xG: AZ 2.7 ADO 0.9); ultimately, the scoreline wasn’t that close, as AZ won 2-0, but it was indeed a very entertaining game to watch. AZ look very, very good, and ADO look like the well-coached unit that their promotion last season promised. ADO are going to fear no one this year. They’ll go as far as their talent can take them.
Sigh… I was also almost right about Utrecht against Groningen. I predicted Utrecht would struggle to a 2-2 draw, but instead they struggled to a 2-1 loss (xG: Utrecht 2.3 Groningen 1.5). As you can see from the Expected Goals—Utrecht could’ve won. If I’m Anthony Correia, I’m feeling positive despite the loss. 2.3 xG usually means a win. Keep doing that and you’ll have a great season.
The last of the games you were able to watch was a treat, Feyenoord Rotterdam against Sparta Rotterdam. This was an entertaining one; Sparta truly are going to be a team to watch under Rogier Meijer. I thought Feyenoord would win 3-1, but they won 1-0 (xG: Feyenoord 3.6 Sparta 1.0). That made for some nervy final minutes for Feyenoord fans, but 3-1 would’ve been a more accurate scoreline for the game we watched. Yes, Feyenoord had a lot of chances, but Sparta totally could’ve won this game regardless. Both teams are going to be fun to watch this season.
I thought Excelsior would beat Cambuur 3-1—I’m very high on Excelsior coach Ruben den Uil—but they blew ‘em out of the water, 4-0 (xG: Excelsior 2.9 Cambuur 0.7). A very impressive start to the season for Excelsior. I’m looking forward to them being on our TVs next week against PSV.
Last but not least, Go Ahead Eagles beat the newly-promoted Willem II 4-1. I thought they’d win 2-0; yes, Willem II are arguably the weakest team in the league, but still a great start for a Go Ahead team that is increasingly interesting under new coach Joseph Oosting.