At 19 days for the Eredivisie, this was the longest international break ever. Yes, ever.
Usually, these breaks are around nine days—national teams play two games, and then we’re back to club soccer. But FIFA decided that September and October having one break each was too disruptive to the season schedule, and so they merged the two international windows into one long block. It used to be nine days in September, nine days in October, nine days in November, and nine days in March; now it’s 16 days in October, nine in November, and nine in March. Fewer disruptions—I get it.
But now? Players surely get completely out of rhythm from their club team. It’s like if you went on a three-week work retreat for a special project, and then had to come back and resume your regular job. Will it take a second for you to readjust? If you were doing well at your job before the retreat, maybe that momentum is gone. On the other hand, if you were in a bad spell, maybe this break from normal life was a welcome reset.
We also must consider the fact that the clubs with better players naturally had more of those players leave to play for their country. PSV Eindhoven, for example, had 17 players called up to their national teams. 17! Any practices that coach Peter Bosz had during this break were pretty much useless to him, as basically his entire regular squad was gone. But for the smaller clubs, who can’t afford to pay the huge salaries? This might work to their advantage. Excelsior Rotterdam, who have had a relatively fantastic start to the season so far, only saw three of their players leave. This means the majority of the team got to rest, recuperate, and focus on their role within coach Ruben den Uil’s squad. Will we see more upsets this week as a result? Conventional wisdom would say yes; I’m looking forward to finding out.
The Standings Going In
All teams have played seven games.
Key:
Purple: Champions; directly into the Champions League
Pink: into the Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round (must beat two teams, or drop to the Europa League)
Blue: Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round (must beat three teams, or drop to the Conference League)
Green: Intra-league playoffs (place four against seven and five against six) for the Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round (must beat three teams)
Orange: Relegation playoffs (must beat the winner of the 2nd division promotion playoffs to stay in the Eredivisie)
Red: Relegated to the 2nd division, known (for sponsorship reasons) as the Keuken Kampioen Divisie (KKD)
Week 8 Standings
AZ — 19 points — 6 1 0
Feyenoord — 17 points — 5 2 0
PSV — 16 points — 5 1 1
Twente — 16 points — 5 1 1
Ajax — 14 points — 4 2 1
Fortuna — 13 points — 4 1 2
Excelsior — 11 points — 3 2 2
Groningen — 11 points — 3 2 2
Go Ahead — 10 points — 2 4 1
Heerenveen — 9 points — 2 3 2
N.E.C. — 8 points — 2 2 3
Sparta — 5 points — 1 2 4
Telstar — 5 points — 1 2 4
Cambuur — 5 points — 1 2 4
Utrecht — 5 points — 1 2 4
PEC — 4 points — 1 1 5
ADO — 2 points — 0 2 5
Willem II — 2 points — 0 2 5
Please bear with me as I continue to try to make the standings more visually interesting. How do we feel about this? I previously just listed the points, but now you can easily see that we have two undefeated teams (AZ and Feyenoord, who happen to play each other this week…) and two winless teams (ADO and Willem II).
Excelsior’s like that Paul Rudd meme.
Super interesting: Opta, the soccer data analytics company, used every possible statistic and thousands of simulations to see what the standings should look like, removing the luck (and such) that can lead to a winning goal, such as a goalkeeper blunder. And the results, well:
Quick recap (using the word “should” loosely here, by the way):1
The Teams Doing Better Than They Should:
AZ (+2), PSV (+1), Excelsior (+1), Groningen (+1), Telstar (+4), Fortuna (+12!)
Fortuna Sittard, one of the revelations of the season, should be bottom of the standings. I mean, wowza. It really goes to show how much of their performances this season rests on the feet of star players Mohamed Ihattaren and Ole Romeny.
The Teams Doing Worse Than They Should:
Feyenoord (-1), Twente (-2), Go Ahead (-3), Heerenveen (-3), Sparta (-2), Utrecht (-3), Cambuur (-1), ADO (-3), Willem II (-3)
I’m not surprised to see Joseph Oosting’s Go Ahead here; I feel like it’s been a regular occurrence that I’ve said they deserved more out of a game.
Justice for ADO, the best 17th-placed team ever.
If statistics ruled the world, Twente would be in a Champions League spot. They could still very well end up there—but regardless, what a feat for a club that was relegated in 2018, which I’m being told was not just three years ago, but in fact eight.
The Teams Exactly Where They Should Be:
Ajax, N.E.C., PEC
I feel for PEC, who at times have looked decent, but any positivity gets overshadowed when you lose by a score of 7-0.
A Look At Each Game
Holy trap game, Batman. PSV players will have to refocus quickly if they’re going to avoid a second consecutive loss. Heerenveen are such a funny team, because the only thing they do consistently is be inconsistent; their previous matchup was a 4-0 win in a game I thought they’d lose 3-1. And so, visiting the champions in Eindhoven may be exactly the kind of resumption of league play that lights a fire under their Frisian butts to continue where they left off. I’m curious to see how cohesive PSV look in this game, because my questions about the effects of the international break may be answered within the first game of the week. If PSV play the beautiful soccer we’re used to, then hey, maybe either my imagination has run amuck, or Peter Bosz is a magician who can get his soldiers in line with a single snap of the fingers. As much as it feels safe to predict a PSV win—especially considering they have the talent to escape a trap game like this—I have a gut feeling that they’re going to drop more points here to a motivated Heerenveen team, who crucially had zero of their core starters leave Friesland over the break. I think Heerenveen even has a chance to win here, if star winger Jacob Trenskow (#20) decides to have the game of his life. 2-2.
Time for Go Ahead to make a statement. I can only imagine Hillary Clinton saying, “I don’t know who created Go Ahead Eagles, but I’m trying to figure out how we get them to Go Ahead And Win A Game.” The Deventer club has not won since beating ADO 3-1 on August 23rd. They’ve since lost 5-2 to AZ, given away a 3-1 lead to tie 3-3 against Utrecht, and tied 1-1 with both Groningen and N.E.C. Nijmegen. Those last two games were especially excruciating for Go Ahead: against Groningen, they created 3.5 Expected Goals to their opponents’ 0.2. Against N.E.C., they created 2.9 Expected Goals to their opponents’ 1.1. That’s what we call a shame, ladies and gentlemen. They’re really going to be hoping that they can nab all three points against Sparta here at home, and really show the fans packed in De Adelaarshorst stadium (which is Dutch for “Eagle’s Nest”) that all their beautiful, attack-minded soccer can indeed translate into results. Sparta, on the other hand, are a team that you feel hasn’t reached their potential. They’re certainly going to be hungry to erase that 4-0 defeat to Heerenveen from their memory—that most recent game being their worst performance of the season—but Go Ahead are a rough team to come up against when that’s what you’re looking to do. The Eagles are a relentless attacking team, and Sparta’s big trouble this season has been their defense. I don’t think the Sparta fans making the under-two-hour trip from Rotterdam to Deventer will be in for a good time. 3-1 Go Ahead.
Game of the Week alert. These are the two teams that are sitting pretty atop the standings, both undefeated in the league so far this season. Safe to say: this should be a thriller. AZ have managed to have a good week so far already: they locked down their star player and prodigy Kees Smit until 2030, when his contract previously ran until 2028. Do I think Smit will actually stay in Alkmaar until then? No, because AZ already had to ask him to stay for this season, instead of giving in to interest from Europe’s top teams like Real Madrid. I imagine this new contract had a salary bump as a thank you for staying another season, along with some sort of clause that makes sure AZ can really cash in when Smit does eventually leave. AZ’s biggest cash cow ever was Tijjani Reijnders, who they sold to AC Milan in 2023 for a little over $29 million in today’s dollars; they’ll be looking to get at least double that for Smit. He has the potential to be just that good. And if AZ win this game, which would extend their lead at the top of the standings to five points (assuming the PSV game goes how I predicted…)? They’re going to start dreaming. And honestly, why shouldn’t they? They have talent all over the field, truly. Striker Mexx Meerdink (#9) is going to come back to the practice field as the Big Man On Campus, having played a pivotal role in the Dutch national team’s games over the break. And AZ are honestly worth watching just so you can see Ro-Zangelo Daal (#11) dazzle on the left wing. And I haven’t even gotten to talking about Feyenoord yet, who are playing arguably the most entertaining soccer in the league—which, considering how basically every team is playing an attractive style, is high praise. Feyenoord’s Gjivai Zechiël (#8) will be feeling similarly to Meerdink, having made his debut for Oranje, and Luciano Valente (#10) will be eager to show Xavi that he should’ve been called up too (I agree, Luciano!). This is a game that is just exceptionally hard to predict. I just don’t see either of them losing; is it possible for both teams to win? I don’t think they’ll tie, either—this feels like an NFL game that’s won by whoever has the ball last. I have written and deleted a final sentence here multiple times, but twisting my own arm, I think Feyenoord being at home tips the scales in their favor. 3-2 Feyenoord.
One reason to hope for three Feyenoord goals? Feyenoord, in my opinion, have the best “we just scored a goal” music that plays throughout the stadium. It’s an excerpt from the tune of “I Will Survive,” and if you listen to the remaining 30 seconds of this video, you can hear the tune start and then hear the fans singing along to it. Is it just me, or does celebrating a goal at De Kuip stadium (Dutch for “the tub,” due to the arena’s shape) and going la-la-la-laa-laaaa-lalalalalala seem like a lot of fun? If you watch/stream this game, you’ll be able to hear it if (when) Feyenoord score a goal.2
This is a good exam for both teams. I really wish we could watch this one. Will Fortuna, the should-be last-place team, continue whatever witchcraft they’re brewing down there in Sittard? Will Twente, a team that seems to now be moving at full speed, outclass a team that they, on paper, really should beat? If anything, pressure might be a factor here. Twente are going into a hostile environment at the creatively-named Fortuna Sittard Stadion, and they’re going to want to keep up the pace with the league leaders and continue the fight for a Champions League spot—or dare I say—the title itself. Fortuna, on the other hand, will be in front of what’ll likely be a full stadium of fans in a joyous mood. This is the kind of game that is within reach for Fortuna; Twente are talented, but don’t have the kind of world-beaters who you’ll find at PSV or Ajax. And so, if Fortuna are For-Real this season (that’s the Hillary Clinton humor making another appearance), this is a game they’ll find a way to win. Womp womp, though, because I don’t think they do. 3-1 Twente.
PS: Anyone with 80 euro to spare want to buy me this incredibly sick jersey that Fortuna just released, honoring their first Dutch Cup win 70 years ago and which they’ll wear during cup games?3 I’m not even a Fortuna fan primarily, but rarely does a jersey look that cool. If no volunteers, I may be forced to do something very financially irresponsible.
Do we detect a sign of life in Nijmegen? That’s the question all N.E.C. fans are wondering after the celebration of a season embellished by European soccer has quickly turned sour. If there’s a game to prove to their fans that they’ve still got some moxie left in them, it’s this one. Not because Ajax are an easy opponent—this is arguably N.E.C.’s toughest game of the season—but because of the way Ajax play; the Amsterdammers are always pushing for a goal, meaning they’ll commit a lot of players forward in search of one, and that could allow N.E.C. to find space to attack, which they have a penchant for. It’s like if an NFL offense played a team that always blitzed: you might just be overrun, but if your quarterback can find a way to make some quick throws, the receivers will only have a single safety to beat. N.E.C. was also aided by some good news over the break: they signed free agent and former Ajax wunderkind Mitchell Bakker, a left-back who is tall, aggressive, and who has experience playing at clubs like Paris Saint-Germain and Bayer Leverkusen. Even if Dick Schreuder’s team can’t produce a miraculous win here, they can show fans that not all hope is lost. They’ll want to at least nab one goal; if 38-year-old star attacker Tjaronn Chery (#9) can have a good game, methinks they’ll get it. 4-1 Ajax.
Alright, Utrecht, deep breath; you can do this. Finally: a winnable game for Anthony Correia’s team! Does that mean they’ll win it? Of course not. If we’ve learned anything so far this Eredivisie season, it’s that you (I) just cannot predict the outcomes of games. Even when you’re (I’m) over 90 percent sure. But man, facing the team at the bottom of the league, and doing so at home? You’ve gotta get three points here. Which would go a long way towards allowing Utrecht fans to be able to even glance at the standings: the current 15th place is a somber state of being for a club of Utrecht’s stature. Theoretically, these three weeks gave Anthony Correia some time for a breather, to maybe rewatch some games and fine-tune what he needs to ask of his players; if there’s any coach that needed that, it’s him. It’s actually very nice that we will be able to watch this game—ESPN+ is responsible for covering four games every weekend, usually those of Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord, and AZ, but when two of those teams play each other, like we have this week, they pick another game to air. It’s interesting that they’ve landed on this one and not Fortuna against Twente, but given that we’re going to see Correia’s Utrecht up close again, I can’t complain. I don’t know if Willem II will be able to accomplish much here in a tough away game, but if they do, you have to imagine attacker Uriël van Aalst (#19) will have something to do with it. 2-0 Utrecht.
Two well-matched teams. Honestly, I thought that after Anthony Correia left Telstar, they would be utterly hopeless. But that has not been the case so far! Replacement head coach Henk Brugge has done a superb job, but a visit from Robin Peter’s ADO may be the toughest winnable game you can imagine. Qua talent, these two teams are on par with each other; Telstar was an Eredivisie newbie last season after 50 years outside of the top league, while ADO are newly promoted after five years—those aren’t the club résumés that allow you to afford (or attract) the best players, respectively. But each time they come on our televisions, both of these teams are at least attempting to play fluid, attacking soccer. This might be the game where they both succeed. I want to predict ADO to win, but I just have a feeling that Telstar are well-coached enough to get a point at home. 2-2.
C’mon, PEC, do something. I cannot imagine that this was what PEC defender Nick Viergever had imagined when he signed for the club this summer. Viergever, an Eredivisie veteran who has played for Sparta, AZ, Ajax, PSV, and Utrecht, was supposed to bring some leadership (he’s currently PEC’s captain) and defensive solidity to the team. I’m sure that the former has been true, but other than in PEC’s only win of the season against Heerenveen (who else?), the latter has not been a resounding success. Only one team has let in more goals than PEC (Utrecht…) and only one team has scored fewer goals (Telstar). At this point, fans in Zwolle will be hoping for a minor miracle in order to play in the Eredivisie again next season… and this week’s opponent are who they must be looking at with a little envy. Cambuur really should be on two points, boosting PEC up to 15th, if not for a shock 3-0 victory against N.E.C. earlier in the season. The one bright spot for PEC is that this game is totally doable for them—beat a newly promoted team in your own stadium and you could be in 12th place, which is likely more in line with PEC’s plans. For Cambuur, their two points outside of that surprising win have come against Telstar and ADO; if they want to stay in the Eredivisie, this is one of the maybe ~six games of the season where those points should come from. This may not be the most dazzling game, but it will be the most desperate; like the Feyenoord-AZ game, this one is equally unpredictable. You’d think that it would be an advantage to play at home, but that might only increase the pressure on the players, who will be playing in front of a likely-sullen crowd. I’d hate to see their misery continue, but this is my best guess. 2-1 Cambuur.
These are just two very fun teams. Utrecht against Willem II better be a banger of a matchup (or Utrecht better be very entertaining), because this is now the second game that I wish was legally viewable in America, and it might be neck-and-neck with Fortuna-Twente in terms of watchability. To put it simply, these are just two teams that you want to root for, because they both play an attractive style under their talented coaches, Ruben den Uil (Excelsior) and Dick Lukkien (Groningen). This is a good test for both teams, similar to Fortuna-Twente: if either of them wants to truly compete for a European playoff spot, these are the kinds of games where they should be earning points. It’s interesting to see that both of these teams are technically over-performing their place in the standings, even if so slightly, because you’d almost think that these teams are under-performing. If not for two goals in the dying seconds of both Excelsior’s 2-2 tie with N.E.C. and 2-1 loss to Utrecht, the Rotterdam team would be three points richer and tied with the almighty Ajax in the standings; this would perhaps be fitting considering Excelsior and Ajax tied themselves 2-2 before the break. Groningen, on the other hand, are a bit of a mixed bag; their one loss to Fortuna was a game they had no business losing. Just look at this momentum chart from that game (Groningen are green). But they’ve also gotten extraordinarily lucky, at the expense of Twente and Go Ahead, to escape both those games with points. This would be a much more significant win for Groningen, in the same way that a loss for Excelsior would sting. I’m expecting a lot of chances. 2-2.
One Player To Know
I’m sure many of you first heard the now-worldwide tune of “Freed from Desire” by Gala under normal circumstances—a club or discotheque perhaps—but I, for the longest time, didn’t even know the lyrics were supposed to be “freed from desire”; I only knew it as “Tadić on fire.” The Serbian was the talisman of the famous Ajax run to the Champions League semifinals in 2019, completing this incredible turn and assist and scoring this inch-perfect goal against Real Madrid. The stuff of legends. That night in Madrid was arguably the greatest single-game performance in Champions League history. So, when Tadić made an unexpected return to the Eredivisie with N.E.C., you can only imagine how exciting it was. It was especially impressive considering N.E.C. could offer nowhere near the salary Tadić would’ve made at the other potential suitors that lined up for him, e.g. literally any team from the Middle East. But he chose Nijmegen because he believed in Dick Schreuder’s vision. Like many players who come to the Netherlands and stay/come back because it’s simply a nice country to live in, Tadić is a man with a lot of Eredivisie history; his breakthrough came at Groningen, which was followed by a move to Twente, and after four solid years with English club Southampton, he was brought back to the lowlands by Ajax, who were in search of a quality veteran player to serve as a leader and guide for their talented youth. And boy, did they get that and more. He later saw the writing on the wall of the turbulence that consumed the Amsterdam club after the departure of esteemed coach Erik ten Hag, along with the fact that the best players were sold without quality replacements brought on board; his contract was terminated by mutual agreement, and he cashed out at Fenerbahce in Turkey and Al Wahda in the United Arab Emirates. Maybe that influx of dough was what allowed him to accept a lower salary to play at N.E.C.—either way, we’re grateful to have him back. He’s a creative attacking midfielder who is gifted with the ball; the kind of player who still has the same deft touch today at age 37 that he did at age 27. I’m highlighting him, and the famous chant that bears his name, because he’s making a return to Amsterdam this week for the first time since he left; odds are, if you tune in, you’ll be able to hear that chant sung from the rafters. And don’t let the stone face fool you (I get the pictures from each team’s website, and when it comes to those photos, I don’t think the cameraman is telling anyone to say cheese), he usually has a kind, soft smile painted on his face; it’s an expression that will be replicated on Saturday by everyone in the Johan Cruijff Arena.
Oranje Corner
It’s maybe old (last week’s) news now, but I haven’t said anything about it: Jong Oranje, which is the common name of the Dutch under-21 national team, got quite lucky in their qualification hopes for the under-21 European Championship. After a string of bad results, they needed to beat Bosnia & Herzegovina, and hope that Israel dropped points against Norway; both happened, and now the team led by former Oranje player Michael Reiziger will play in the qualification playoffs in November against Denmark. It really was a massive stroke of luck to even be in this position—Jong Oranje not qualifying for the Euros would have been a mini-disaster at Dutch headquarters in Zeist. Some say that Reiziger should lose his job regardless of the result against Denmark (I’m one of them!) but he absolutely must go if they fail to beat the Danes over two games. There’s also talk about having Gjivai Zechiël and Ruben van Bommel “step down” to Jong Oranje, for which they’re still eligible due to their ages, to help secure qualification. Regardless, Reiziger has just had way too much established talent in the team to be underperforming this badly. You may think, “oh, it’s just the U21 Euros, who cares,” but it’s through this tournament that the Netherlands could qualify for the 2028 Olympic Games. And yah, we care about that. The top three finishers at the 2027 U21 Euros get to represent Europe in Los Angeles (the two finalists and the winner of the third-place game); if the Dutch don’t even make the Euros, all hopes of Olympic representation are immediately dashed. It’s actually such a shame that the Dutch have only fielded a team for Olympic men’s soccer one time since 1992: at Beijing 2008. Essentially, the U21 Euros is only really important once every four years, and this happens to be one of those years. Unfortunately, the possibilities with this team seem to be capped with Reiziger at the helm. One step at a time; we’ll see how it goes against Denmark next month.
Switching from men’s soccer to women’s soccer, today at 2pm ET the Dutch Lionesses play a crucial game against Hungary, who they must win against over two games to keep hopes alive of being at the Women’s World Cup next year. Unfamiliar with the women’s Oranje/want to know more about these games versus Hungary? Get acclimated here.
Moment of Nature
The Netherlands really is a soccer-crazed country. As I said in a footnote in my women’s soccer post, I don’t think the lack of attention paid to women’s soccer in the country is a result of sexism, but instead the fact that everyone is already consumed by men’s soccer. Look at Europe’s top leagues by average stadium occupancy rate:
I mean, some say that the Portuguese league is at the same level as the Dutch league, but an average capacity of 53% is just horrendous. Even the Belgian Pro League sits at 67%. And among the best-attended Dutch clubs? N.E.C., PEC, and Excelsior—far from the league’s elite. I’m obviously biased, but there really is something special about this league and this country. It’s just all—to use a Dutch word with no direct English translation—gezellig.
I have evolved on this issue, but I don’t believe in the “should” thing. “Oh they should have won, for XYZ reason!” Well, they didn’t. I believe that the team that should have won/lost is the team that won/lost. This is a game about scoring goals and stopping scoring goals; if you have a number of huge chances but don’t put the ball in the net, and then your goalkeeper makes a horrendous mistake that costs you an unlucky goal, and you lose 1-0, I think you deserved to lose. No “we should have won,” because no, you shouldn’t have, you couldn’t finish your chances and your goalie couldn’t not make a mistake. Makes me think of this scene.
If Feyenoord are kept to zero goals in this game, I’ll eat my shoe.
From the jersey’s description: A tribute to a team of champions. Exactly 70 years ago, Fortuna ’54 made history by winning the KNVB Cup for the first time. To celebrate this special anniversary, Fortuna Sittard is bringing the iconic cup jersey back to life. This replica jersey is inspired by the kit Fortuna ’54 wore when they won the cup back then. The recognizable red-white-blue stripe forms the centerpiece of the design and is a direct nod to the shirt worn by the cup winners back then.